weinstein unrealistic optimism future life events 1980

WEINSTEIN UNREALISTIC OPTIMISM FUTURE LIFE EVENTS 1980 UPDATE

Thus, selective updating, whereby participants update their beliefs when receiving desirable information relative to undesirable information, was enhanced by L-DOPA.

Specifically, a 2 (condition: L-DOPA/placebo) by 2 (valence: desirable/undesirable) ANCOVA on update scores revealed a significant interaction. We found that L-DOPA selectively impaired belief update in response to undesirable information about the future ( Figure 2B). The average degree of absolute belief update was then computed for each participant and condition (update = |participant's second estimate − participant's first estimate|). ], we divided trials into those for which the average probability of experiencing a negative life event was better than the participants' own probability estimate (i.e., trials for which a subject received desirable information) relative to a situation where the average probability was worse (i.e., subjects received undesirable information). Note that if the average estimation error is small in magnitude, this does not imply that the subject is accurate in their estimation rather, it reflects that they are not biased in any particular direction. A positive number indicated a bias in a pessimistic direction, and a score of zero indicated that the extent of overestimation is equal to that of underestimation. If the average estimation error was negative, then this indicated that participants tended to underestimate their likelihood of encountering aversive events relative to the average probability in the population (optimistically biased predictions). Specifically, for each participant on each trial, we subtracted the participant's estimation of how likely they were to encounter the negative event from the average probability of encountering that event (i.e., estimation error = estimation − probability presented). Google Scholar WILLS, T.A., DOWNWARD COMPARISON PRINCIPLES IN SOCIAL-PSYCHOLOGY, PSYCHOLOGICAL BULLETIN 90 : 245 (1981). We found that enhancing participants' dopamine function increased their prediction bias in an optimistic direction. weinstein, n.d., unrealistic optimism about future life events, journal of personality and social psychology 39: 806 (1980).

Weinstein unrealistic optimism future life events 1980